Thursday, July 30, 2009

Economic Policy to ensure job recovery

Industrial/Labor Market Policy – Think Swedish, Steven Attewell, 7/25/09

....The dramatic urgency for emphasizing job growth in public policy is that, as Brad DeLong notes, our economic recoveries are increasingly becoming longer, and slower to reverse damage done to employment – the jobless recovery is becoming the norm, not the exception as you can see from his graph reproduced below:

As I have argued, this trend suggests a larger problem than just the immediate crisis, because jobless recoveries are in a sense, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because we’re not producing enough jobs in recoveries, our labor market is remaining weak even in good times, which means that there’s virtually no pressure from below for wage increases. As a result, wages have been stagnant and declining, such that the median household income has declined by .6% between 1999 and 2007. This in turn makes consumer spending and confidence, one the main economic engines of the economy, incredibly reliant on credit, making the economy as a whole more vulnerable to sudden fluctuations in credit availability, which makes recessions more likely, and further job losses, and the cycle begins again. ....
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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Lessons from Hard Times Past

Lessons from Hard Times Past
By Jeremy Brecher, Tim Costello and Brendan Smith
Znet, July 22, 2009

"We're all struggling with how to think -- and what to do -- in the face of the 'great recession.' An initial progressive response was to advocate better regulation; then Keynesian economic stimulus; now nationalization; perhaps in the future some kind of socialism."

"One theme that has reverberated through periods of 'hard times' in the past is the idea of 'production for use.' It has appeared in the form of public works job creation; worker run enterprises; self-help mutual aid; and efforts to push the envelope on property rights that prevent people from using the resources that are available to meet their needs. Today production for use may find new applications - including working to save the planet from climate destruction."

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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Problems counting stimulus jobs

SPIN METER: 'Help Wanted' counting stimulus jobs By RYAN KOST (AP) –July 28, 2009

PORTLAND, Ore. — How much are politicians straining to convince people that the government is stimulating the economy? In Oregon, where lawmakers are spending $176 million to supplement the federal stimulus, Democrats are taking credit for a remarkable feat: creating 3,236 new jobs in the program's first three months.

But those jobs lasted on average only 35 hours, or about one work week. After that, those workers were effectively back unemployed, according to an Associated Press analysis of state spending and hiring data. By the state's accounting, a job is a job, whether it lasts three hours, three days, three months, or a lifetime.

"Sometimes some work for an individual is better than no work," said Oregon's Senate president, Peter Courtney.

With the economy in tatters and unemployment rising, Oregon's inventive math underscores the urgency for politicians across the country to show that spending programs designed to stimulate the economy are working — even if that means stretching the facts.

.... read rest of article

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Thursday, July 23, 2009

Dude, Where’s My Industrial Policy? | OurFuture.org

Dude, Where’s My Industrial Policy? OurFuture.org:
By Dave Johnson

"Increasingly people are asking about our country’s plan for restoring and reinventing the economy. And that means thinking about manufacturing – the root of economic power. How will we revive American manufacturing and being back the good-paying jobs manufacturing creates?"

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Friday, July 17, 2009

We Need a National Policy for Manufacturing

America Needs a National Manufacturing Policy. Now. Sen Sherrod Brown, July 17, 2009

Not too long ago, the ticket to the middle class was straightforward. Work hard, play by the rules, and you'll have something to show for it -- a good wage, a secure job and home, and a solid pension.

Our nation -- and economy -- relied on workers around Ohio to build cars and appliances, to lay down rail lines and highways. Their work put them squarely in the middle class. Their work -- and a thriving manufacturing industry -- turned our nation into an economic superpower.

Job loss and wage stagnation figures reflect a decade's long decline in U.S. manufacturing, a decline that has shattered the American dream for millions of Americans. What these figures don't reflect is the enormous potential the manufacturing sector holds for revitalizing our economy and ensuring our nation remains an economic superpower. Robust manufacturing capacity is not only essential if we are to achieve energy independence and sustain the independent ability to equip our military, it is the key to global competitiveness in emerging markets. From clean energy to medical and information technology to global infrastructure needs -- our nation's global competitiveness depends on our nation's manufacturing sector.

To realize our full potential, we must stop ignoring the challenges that manufacturing faces. We need a national plan -- a national manufacturing policy -- that aligns federal actions with the goal of strengthening our manufacturing sector. Today, as Chairman of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Economic Policy, I am hosting a hearing to examine how best to develop a robust national manufacturing policy.

.... Read rest of article

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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Prime the pump, or crash the economy

Deficits saved the world - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com:
New York Times
July 15, 2009

"...[G]overnment deficits, mainly the result of automatic stabilizers rather than discretionary policy, are the only thing that has saved us from a second Great Depression..."

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Unemployment = $1 Trillion in Lost Output

Wake up America!! Underinvesting in jobs is costing us a fortune.

To see just how much, check out this great Uncommon Sense piece by Helen Ginsburg, first published in 1994 by the National Jobs for All Coalition.

The piece quotes the great Nobel-Prize winning economist Robert Eisner, who was a steadfast proponent of smart fiscal stimulus and full employment.

UNEMPLOYMENT MEANS LOST OUTPUT AND HUMAN DEFICITS

By Helen Ginsburg, Professor of Economics, Brooklyn College of the City of New York and Executive Committee, National Jobs for All Coalition

Unemployment adds to the federal deficit,* and to the already oversized human deficit. And, although it is hardly ever mentioned, unemployment alsomeans a tremendous loss of potential output.

In plain language, jobless workers and unused capacity do not turn out goods and services that couldbe used to raise living standards.

Houses that are not built, urban transit systems that are not produced, and child-, health-, and eldercare workers who are fired or not hired cannot meet the housing, mass-transit,andhuman-service needs of our people.

LOSS OF OUTPUT. The magnitude of this loss is not trivial.

For example, suppose unemployment in 1994 had been 4 percent--the interim 5-year goal of the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of1978--instead of the 6.1 percent experienced in that year. In that case, the nation would have produced roughly $280 billion in additional goods and services--more than $1,000 for every man, woman and child.

Current estimate (2009): "We’ve taken a huge step back here," said James Glassman, senior economist at JPMorgan & Co. He said elevated levels of unemployment and underemployment are costing the economy about $1 trillion in gross domestic product a year.


"We’ve lost several decades of progress that was going on in terms of the people number of people coming into the workforce," said Glassman.

As noted economist Robert Eisner, former President of the American Economic Association, commented on the staggering loss caused by unemployment: the nation is "literally throwing away potential output."

OUR REAL DEFICITS. Eisner also brings a much-needed correction of the deficit hysteria that has dominated the political agenda by pointing outdeficits that are more serious than the budgetary one.

Over the long haul, he says, "our deficits are in our rundown infrastructure of roads, bridges, airports, waste disposal facilities" and inadequate environmental protection.

They are also in our neglect of "a significant part of a generation growing up semi-literate in an unending cycle of poverty, in an educational system moreand more clearly behind that of the World's other developed nations, in our ...gaps in child care and health care and in inadequate housing for tens ofmillions of Americans. These are our real deficits. They are large. They pose awesome dangers to the future of our economy and our nation." ["Deficits:Which, How Much and So What?" American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May, 1992]

*See Uncommon Sense #1: "Increasing Unemployment Increases the Deficit; Reducing Unemployment Reduces the Deficit (1994)."

Cross-posted from National Jobs for All Coalition, http://www.njfac.org/

Save the date!! Join us for the NATIONAL CONFERENCE TO CREATE LIVING-WAGE JOBS FOR ALL, MEET HUMAN NEEDS & SUSTAIN THE ENVIRONMENT, New York City, Friday & Saturday, November 13-14, 2009.

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Save the Date: Nov 13-14 National Conference for Full Employment

SAVE THE DATE !!

NATIONAL CONFERENCE TO CREATE LIVING-WAGE JOBS FOR ALL, MEET HUMAN NEEDS & SUSTAIN THE ENVIRONMENT

Friday & Saturday, November 13-14, 2009
New York, NY

Our country is in the throes of an economic crisis—the most severe since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Unemployment is at the disaster level. And even before the onset of our current, deep recession, chronic unemployment, low and stagnant wages, myriad unmet needs and unprecedented environmental degradation were endemic.

Current Job Crisis

Nearly 30 million workers fully or partially jobless (June 2009). This is the most rapid job less of any downturn since the Great Depression. There are 5 million fewer jobs in the U.S. economy since the onset of the recession. High unemployment is expected to persist, even if the economy “recovers.” Many of the long-term unemployed will lose benefits, their savings, their homes and more.

Weak Stimulus

By the Administration’s own estimate, the economic stimulus will make up for a fraction of the millions of jobs lost since the recession began. Nor will the Stimulus stem the continuing job hemorrhage.

“Good Old Days”

Even in “good” times: 5 million or more women and men were officially jobless; hidden unemployment afflicted many millions more; and poverty wages were rampant. Inequality reigned, our infrastructure was crumbling, and human services fell far short of needs. We must not go back to those “Good Old Days.”

Instead, we should be guided by President Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933): We cannot be content, no matter how high the general standard of living may be, if some fraction of our people … is ill-fed, ill-clothed, ill-housed, and insecure.

Real Reform

Now is the time to organize and mobilize to create a just economy--one that assures living wage jobs for all, sustains the environment, and repairs our social and physical infrastructure.

JOIN A COALITION of LABOR, RELIGIOUS, ANTI-POVERTY, COMMUNITY ACTION ORGANIZATIONS … & CONCERNED PEOPLE

ATTEND & SUPPORT THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK

HELP TO ORGANIZE SIMILAR CONFERENCES ALL OVER THE UNITED STATES & PLAN A MASS DEMONSTRATION FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE IN WASHINGTON

For more information, to make reservations, and to participate in planning the conference and subsequent action:

Visit the website of the National Jobs for All Coalition, http://www.njfac.org/

Telephone, 212-972-9877 to register for the November Conference or
E-mail njfac@njfac.org

Cross-posted to http://www.drivefordecentwork.org/

Read Shared Prosperity and the Drive for Decent Work

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Rep. Blumenauer Champions Water Infrastructure Upgrades

Kudos to Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) for leading the fight to expand public investment in clean water and sewer infrastructure upgrades.

We haven't seen an official estimate, but expect this bill would likely create tens of thousands of jobs in communities across the country, and bolster strapped local governments who can't afford the investment without federal help.

American Rivers Applauds Introduction of Multi-Billion Dollar Water Trust Fund CommonDreams.org:

"American Rivers today applauded Representative Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) for introducing legislation that establishes a Water Trust Fund to invest in fixing the nation's outdated drinking water and sewage treatment systems. The bipartisan legislation, the Water Protection and Reinvestment Act (H.R. 3202), establishes a $10 billion annual fund for repairing America's aging pipes and overburdened sewer systems, which pose serious threats to public health and the environment, and the security of the nation's communities.

American Rivers is particularly supportive of the legislation's emphasis on green infrastructure approaches that protect, restore and repair natural systems, and use water efficiently. These approaches have far-reaching benefits - they save money and energy, reduce stormwater runoff and sewage overflows, recharge drinking water supplies, create appealing natural areas for community enjoyment, and help communities prepare for climate change.

Communities are struggling to fill the Environmental Protection Agency-estimated $500 billion backlog of critical water infrastructure necessary to protect public health and the environment -- infrastructure that will be stressed further by climate change."

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Obama Proposes Expanded Funding for Community Colleges

Obama Proposal Emphasizes Community Colleges - NYTimes.com:

A Boon to 2-Year Colleges, Affirming Their Value
By TAMAR LEWIN
Published: July 14, 2009

The Obama administration’s proposal to provide $12 billion to community colleges is widely seen by educators as explicit recognition of the two-year colleges’ importance to the economy.

“For years, the Washington conversation about public education has all been about k-12, and increasing access to college,” said Andy Van Kleunen, executive director of The Workforce Alliance, a national group of employers, unions, and education and training providers. “This changes the whole game.”

President Obama’s goal of five million more community college graduates by 2020 would require nearly doubling graduation rates at most community colleges.

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Black-White Gap in Jobless Rate Widens in New York City - NYTimes.com

Black-White Gap in Jobless Rate Widens in New York City - NYTimes.com:
By PATRICK McGEEHAN and MATHEW R. WARREN
Published: July 12, 2009

"Unemployment among blacks in New York City has increased much faster than for whites, and the gap appears to be widening at an accelerating pace, new studies of jobless data have found.

While unemployment rose steadily for white New Yorkers from the first quarter of 2008 through the first three months of this year, the number of unemployed blacks in the city rose four times as fast, according to a report to be released on Monday by the city comptroller’s office. By the end of March, there were about 80,000 more unemployed blacks than whites, according to the report, even though there are roughly 1.5 million more whites than blacks here."

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IAM calls for massive jobs program and 2nd stimulus package

American Chronicle Machinists Union Launches ´JOBS Now´ Campaign:
Will Urge Strong Support at AFL-CIO Convention.

Harry Kelber July 10, 2009

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will propose an eight-point 'JOBS Now!' initiative, that it w ill ask the AFL-CIO to adopt at its 2009 convention this September. The ambitious goal of the IAM campaign is to find work for the 30.2 million Americans who are unemployed, involuntarily working part-time or who want a job and can´t find one, says Tom Buffenbarger, IAM´s international union president.

The IAM resolution calls for a national jobs program. similar to the public works projects during the Great Depression, that can 'rebuild America´s manufacturing sector and put seven million Americans back to work—immediately,' Also included in the resolution are proposals for a tuition-free, two-year skills training program; creation of green jobs; operating assistance to America´s transit system and a 'Buy American law with teeth.'

The Machinists intend to press the Obama administration for a second economic stimulus package, one aimed at the manufacturing and transportation sectors. A union statement said: 'President Obama´s economic stimulus plan is a start toward economic recovery but the program is not broad enough to create needed jobs now, rebuild our manufacturing sector, provide training for workers and children preparing for the future, maintain our national defense, provide a real Buy American program and reform labor law.'

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American Chronicle | Machinists Union Launches ´JOBS Now´ Campaign

American Chronicle Machinists Union Launches ´JOBS Now´ Campaign: "Harry Kelber July 10, 2009

Will Urge Strong Support at AFL-CIO Convention.

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will propose an eight-point 'JOBS Now!' initiative, that it w ill ask the AFL-CIO to adopt at its 2009 convention this September. The ambitious goal of the IAM campaign is to find work for the 30.2 million Americans who are unemployed, involuntarily working part-time or who want a job and can´t find one, says Tom Buffenbarger, IAM´s international union president.

The IAM resolution calls for a national jobs program. similar to the public works projects during the Great Depression, that can 'rebuild America´s manufacturing sector and put seven million Americans back to work—immediately,' Also included in the resolution are proposals for a tuition-free, two-year skills training program; creation of green jobs; operating assistance to America´s transit system and a 'Buy American law with teeth.'

The Machinists intend to press the Obama administration for a second economic stimulus package, one aimed at the manufacturing and transportation sectors. A union statement said: 'President Obama´s economic stimulus plan is a start toward economic recovery but the program is not broad enough to create needed jobs now, rebuild our manufacturing sector, provide training for workers and children preparing for the future, maintain our national defense, provide a real Buy American program and reform labor law.'"

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Friday, July 3, 2009

Financial Sector Survives Crisis OK

Wall Street Still Near Full-Employment: How Can That Be?
Les Leopold, Huffington Post
July 2, 2009

"...Not only did all boats fail to rise on the way up, but all boats are not sinking as fast on the way down. Contrary to media portrayals, Wall Street is still doing quite well compared to other sectors. We all know about the million-dollar bonuses financial management is paying itself out of taxpayer bailouts, but also consider the unemployment situation. According to the latest BLS data, the unemployment rate for "Financial Activities" was only 5.5 percent--that's the kind of unemployment rate most of us associate with boom times, not deep recessions. Meanwhile, construction workers face a 17.4 percent unemployment rate (and this is the building season), while 12.6 percent of all manufacturing workers were out of jobs. Even the "information" sector is suffering with a 11.1 percent unemployment rate. (Table A-11, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf)

So why hasn't the crash devastated employment in the financial sector? One big reason is that we put the entire sector on welfare. We pumped in several trillion dollars of cash and asset guarantees to keep the entire sector afloat. You would think Wall Street would be thanking us all for taking the hit while they roll along. Nope. Instead they are doing all they can to gut each and every regulation that might protect us against their fantasy finance schemes. They are even mounting a full scale attack (using our resources) against the proposed Financial Consumer Protection Agency. (See "Redefining Chutzpah: Wall Street Uses Bailout Money to Kill Financial Consumer Protection Agency" at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/les-leopold/redefining-chutzpah-wall_b_224493.html)

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JUNE 2009 Unemployment Data

Cross-posted from the National Jobs for All Coalition

JUNE 2009 UNEMPLOYMENT DATA*
(U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS)

OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT: 9.5% [Analysis]

A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 8.7million, and the jobless rate was 5.6 percent. [BLS]

White 8.7%
African American 14.7%
Hispanic 12.2%
Asian** 8.2%
Men 20 years and over 10.0%
Women 20 years and over 7.6%
Teen-agers (16-19 years) 24.0%
Black teens 37.9%

Officially unemployed 14.7 million

HIDDEN UNEMPLOYMENT

Working part-time because can't find a full-time job: 9.0 million

People who want jobs but are not looking so are not counted in official statistics (of which about 2.2 million** searched for work during the prior 12 months and were available for work during the reference week.) --> 5.9 million

Total: 29.6 million (18.4% of the labor force)

Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

**Not seasonally adjusted.
*See Uncommon Sense #4 for an explanation of the unemployment measures.

In addition, millions more were working full-time, year-round, yet earnedless than the official poverty level for a family of four. In 2007, the latest year available, that number was 17.6 million, 16.2 percent of full-time workers (estimated from Current Population Survey, Bur. of the Census, 2008).

In April, 2009, the latest month available, the number of job openings was only 2.5 million, according to the BLS, Job Openings andLabor Turnover Estimates, June 9, 2009.+ Thus there are nearly 12 job-wanters for each available job.[Numbers are not comparable with previous months as methods have been revised.]

Mass layoffs: "Employers took 2,933 mass layoff actions in May that resulted in the separation of 312,880 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer. The number of mass layoff events in May increased by 221 from the prior month, and the number of associated initial claims increased by 41,654. Over the year, the number of mass layoff events increased by 1,232 and associated initial claims increased by 132,322. Initial claims rose to its highest level on record, while events matched the peak level from March 2009, with data available back to 1995. In May, 1,331 mass layoff events were reported in the manufacturing sector, seasonally adjusted, resulting in 165,802 initial claims.

Over the year, manufacturing events and initial claims more than doubled. ....
Eleven of the 19 major industry sectors reported program highs in terms of average weekly initial claimants for the month of May—mining; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; finance and insurance; real estate and rental and leasing; management of companies and enterprises; administrative and waste services; health care and social assistance; and accommodation and food services. Government also reported a program high in terms of average weekly initial claimants for the month of May.The manufacturing sector accounted for 37 percent of all mass layoff events and 43 percent of initial claims filed in May 2009; a year earlier, manufacturing made up 25 percent of events and 32 percent of initial claims. This May, the number of manufacturing claimants was greatest in transportation equipment (46,816) and machinery (12,472). (See table 3.) The administrative and waste services sector accounted for 11 percent of mass layoff events and associated initial claims during themonth.." (BLS, June 23, 2009)

See NJFAC Job News for additional charts

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Job-Related News

Cross-posted from the National Jobs for All Coalition

Unemployment data--June 2009 Times graphic-comparative job loss 3/09

Analysis:

"Unemployment in this downturn continues to be overwhelmingly a male story. The unemployment rate for men rose to 10.0 percent, just 0.1 percentage points below its all-time high in December of 1982, the highest on record since World War II.....All the other data in the household survey was consistent with further weakening of the labor market. The average and median duration of unemployment spells both rose sharply, increasing by 2.0 and 3.0 weeks, respectively. The percentage of the unemployed who have been out of work for more than 26 weeks increased by 2 percentage points to 29.0 percent. Many of these workers will soon be exhausting even their extended unemployment benefits." Baker, CEPR, 7/2/09
"...the entire growth in jobs over the last nine years has now been wiped out — the economy currently has fewer jobs than it had in May 2000 (when there were 131.9 million jobs). And importantly, this decline was not occurring because the jobs weren’t needed — the labor force has expanded by 12.5 million workers since then, as the population continued to grow. This is the only recession1 since the Great Depression to wipe out all jobs growth from the previous business cycle, a testament both to the enormity of the current crisis and to the extreme weakness of jobs growth over the business cycle from 2000 to 2007." Jobs Picture, Shierholz, EPI, 7/2/09

"The underlying news in today’s report, however, is that unemployment remained little changed because so many workers exited the labor force. In June, 358,000 workers reported exiting the labor force, nearly as many as the 374,000 who reported losing a job. This is an indication of the frustration that many are experiencing in trying to find employment—they are simply giving up. The number of discouraged workers has more than doubled to 793,000 since the recession began in December 2007." CAP Boushey, 7/2/09

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Renter affordability worsens over the decade | HoumaToday.com | The Courier | Houma, LA

Renter affordability worsens over the decade HoumaToday.com The Courier Houma, LA:
By J.W. ELPHINSTONE
AP Real Estate Writer
Thursday, July 2, 2009

"...The financial plight of the nation’s 34 million renters has deteriorated rapidly since the beginning of the decade, yet they are rarely included in conversations about housing affordability.

Half of all renters now spend at least 30 percent of their before-tax income on rent and utility payments, that’s up from about 40 percent in 2000, according to an analysis by the Associated Press. One in four shell out more than half of their income to cover those expenses, up from one in five.

And the AP’s analysis of census data through 2007, the latest available, doesn’t include the effects of the recession, which hammer renters harder than homeowners. Tough economic times also disproportionately affect minorities and the less educated — both groups are more likely to be financially burdened renters.

“In the next year or so, we’re going to see growing numbers of people who are literally homeless because they can’t afford their own home,” said Sheila Crowley, the president and CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

The median rent, including utilities, rose 7 percent to $775 between 2000 and 2007. But the increase felt worse because renters saw their median income drop 7 percent to $29,000 during that time."

"...The National Housing Trust Fund created last July to increase the supply of affordable housing remains empty. Funds were supposed to come from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but the government seized control of the companies five weeks later and have so far pumped $85 billion into them to keep them afloat."

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Infrastructure bank to focus on transportation projects

Obama pushes ahead with transport fund rescue - Reuters:
July 1, 2009

"...The administration also released details of Obama's vision for a national infrastructure bank, a centerpiece transportation initiative he promised to pursue during his campaign for president that was broadly described in his proposed budget this spring.

The bank would be an independent entity within the Transportation Department and would at first only focus on rail, highway, bridge and waterway projects.

The administration said in the documents that the bank could later include energy, water and telecommunications infrastructure.

In his budget, Obama asked for $2 billion this year and $5 billion next year to establish a bank that would give grants and make loans for projects that cross state lines or combine different modes of transportation."

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